Travel restrictions would generally have very little effect on delaying or preventing pandemic influenza viruses from spreading to new countries. But some places with a very small number of travelers per year, like for example some small islands in the Pacific or Caribbean, may have a chance to escape a pandemic, if they impose travel volume restrictions. This applet computes the escape probability for a remote place given a set of assumptions about the natural history of the disease, travel behaviour and border control. A publication describing the modeling and results for Pacific Island countries has been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.
EscaVal released
Travel restrictions would generally have very little effect on delaying or preventing pandemic influenza viruses from spreading to new countries. But some places with a very small number of travelers per year, like for example some small islands in the Pacific or Caribbean, may have a chance to escape a pandemic, if they impose travel volume restrictions. This applet computes the escape probability for a remote place given a set of assumptions about the natural history of the disease, travel behaviour and border control. A publication describing the modeling and results for Pacific Island countries has been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.
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