The InfluSim Project

Travel restrictions would generally have very little effect on delaying or preventing pandemic influenza viruses from spreading to new countries. But some places with a very small number of travelers per year, like for example some small islands in the Pacific or Caribbean, may have a chance to escape a pandemic, if they impose travel volume restrictions. This applet computes the escape probability for a remote place given a set of assumptions about the natural history of the disease, travel behaviour and border control. A publication describing the modeling and results for Pacific Island countries has been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal.

M. Eichner, M. Schwehm, N. Wilson, M. Baker:
Small islands and pandemic influenza: Potential benefits and limitations of travel volume reduction as a border control measure
(submitted April 29, 2009)